War is over (for now). Olmert made his victory speech. Time to check the lies I wrote about a few days into the war:
We are fighting to get the kidnapped soldiers back. All Israeli soldiers are on their way out of Lebanon, except for Goldwasser and Regev. And Shalit is still somewhere in Gaza. If these three come back home, they will do so in the "conventional" way, i.e. in return for the release of terrorists and prisoners from Israeli jails. Not because of the war.
Our aim is to crush Hezbollah. The last day of war saw 250 rockets and missiles launched by Hezbollah into Israel; images from Haifa made the city look like a war zone. Tens of Israeli Merkava tanks were put out of order by Hezbollah's anti-tank fire. Not one village in southern Lebanon is free of Hezbollah control. Need I continue? An ideological organization like Hezbollah cannot be crushed. Period.
The air campaign is effective. If so, why the ground offensive? Why more than 100 soldiers dead? Why did the number of rockets increase, not decrease, as the air campaign proceeded?
The people are behind us. This was and remains to some extent true. Except that many of these people view the government as a total failure in the way it dealt with the very same "people". The erection of the "tent city" in Tel Aviv yesterday, hours before the ceasefire, epitomizes the uselessness of the government's response to its citizens' needs in time of war.
The world is behind us. Right... The same world that saved us from continued embarrassment by forcing the ceasefire.
We will establish a security zone in Lebanon without IDF's presence. Yet to be seen... I heard Morrocco, Malaysia and Indonesia - all Islamic countries - are offering to send troops to man UNIFIL's "expanded" force in southern Lebanon. Knowing they will be there protecting me, together with the French, makes me sleep better at night.
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5 comments:
The Israeli attacks on the Lebanese infrastructure, and the disregard for civilian life in the urban bombing campaigns, were the biggest miscalculations of the war, in my view. They clearly would have the effect of weakening the Siniora government and of strengthening Hizbullah politically. They also had the effect of uniting Lebanese public opinion against Israel. In short, they were stupid strategy from a political point of view, and weren't of much use militarily, either, as Sunday's barrage of 250 rockets against Israeli cities by a still-defiant Hizbullah demonstrated.
Anonymous: I disagree with your mostly tactical observation, as it ignores the long-term perspective.
First, blaming Israel for "disregard for civilian life" when Hezbollah displays a blatant disregard for civilians on BOTH sides of the conflict - using them as shields on one side and as intentional targets on the other - is, to say the least, somewhat disingenuous. Furthermore, after 6 years of the Lebanese government doing NOTHING to stand up to Hezbollah whilst it was creating its own "state within a state", Lebanon itself can hardly claim to be an innocent bystander.
I actually believe that the destruction on the Lebanese side serves an important lesson for Israel's enemies. Life in northern Israel will resume (in fact, has resumed this morning) and will go back to normal in no time. Life on the Lebanese side will take years to return to normality. Despite the bravado show put on in Dahieh today, this is a lesson that if not Hezbollah, then hopefully Lebanon, Syria and Iran will take note of.
Israel's carefully nurtured image of military invulnerability has been badly tarnished, with perhaps important downstream effects. In the end, Hizbullah is unbowed, and there is no early prospect of its being weakened. Although the Lebanese government is demanding that it disarm, no one can understand how they think they could make it, given the weakness of their army (can they do something Israel cannot?)
Israelis expected the rest of the Lebanese to turn on Hezbollah and police them for Tel Aviv. They expected Sunni Arab powers like Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan to help with curbing Hizbullah. Although Saudia condemned Hizbullah adventurism early on, the Saudis and others soon began calling for an immediate ceasefire once they saw the damage the Israelis were doing
Yesha Rabbinical Council: During time of war, enemy has no innocents
The Yesha Rabbinical Council announced in response to an IDF attack in Kfar Qanna that "according to Jewish law, during a time of battle and war, there is no such term as 'innocents' of the enemy."
All of the discussions on Christian morality are weakening the spirit of the army and the nation and are costing us in the blood of our soldiers and civilians," the statement said. (Efrat Weiss)
i read your blog through mentalblog
but i must say you are100% right in your analsis
but to the people taht comment regarding innocent lives. you can see the all the propganda with all the false pictures etc. and that many hezbola fighters that were killed were classified as innocent because they dress in civilian clothes
and the policy of destroying the infastructure works (even though no matter what happens the arabs will unite in their hate for israel no matter what happens with them they might hate hezbalah for doing what they did but will ove them to hate israel)just as it worked in gaza and the west bank for suicide bombers the familes house was bulldozed that stopped familes from letting their children be bombers because they lost
it is the same here the people of lebanon have the responsibilty to "curb their dogs" and if the dont want to then unfortunantly they suffer.
it is time for israel to figure out a way to win this war because this is just a ceasefire. tillthe next one
the world is with us . if were abl;e to finnish the job. we did not and now they are not with us. they will not force the disarmement of hezbala
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