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Saturday, July 22, 2006

Fouad Ajami on Nasrallah and Lebanon

A good analysis of Nasrallah's miscalculations by Fouad Ajami in the WSJ yesterday, pointing the root of the problem:

That raid into Israel, the capture of the two Israeli soldiers, was a deliberate attack against the new Lebanon. That the crisis would play out when the mighty of the G-8 were assembled in Russia was a good indication of Iran's role in this turn of events. Hassan Nasrallah had waded beyond his depth: The moment of his glory would mark what is destined to be a setback of consequence for him and for his foot soldiers.

1 comment:

Abir Chaaban said...

I am not a big fan of Fouad Ajami, because he always talks in riddles.

Putting all the blame on Nasrallah, and nothing on the Lebanese government (who failed to negotiate with Hezbolla,) does not really justify the brutality by which Lebanon and the Lebanese people have been attacked.

The Lebanese government holds full responsibility for the escalation of this conflict. The government was not capable of resolving the issue of Hezbollah's dispute with Israel as a national government and decided to maintain these issues as a Nasrallah affair.

Hezbollah's prisoners, the land mines map, and the Chebaa farms are government issues that the Lebanese government needs to negotiate with Israel. Leaving these issues pending and Hezbollah armed consequently led Hezbollah to try and get their demands their own way.

Hezbollah, while a political participant in the Lebanese government, cannot take the country to war unilaterally. Hezbolla’s internal issue with the government does not extend their decisions to reach foreign affairs.

Hezbollah however presumes that it has the final political and military decisions on behalf of the Shia community and precisely because of the sectarian system of the Lebanese governmental structure.

The simplification of what has happened between Lebanon and Israel, does not make the situation on the ground as simple as the claim that Nasrallah is fully responsible.